Thursday, January 21, 2010

>> S&P: Is the Bear Market Back?



Today's 21.5 point in the S&P 500 index has broken a trendline in place since July '09, and raises the important question: is this the much awaited correction, or is this an early sign that the bear market is back?

Lets look at the chart as on 01/21/10:
  • The trendline from July 09 has been violated
  • The narrow rising wedge seems to be broken as well
  • MACD is moving ( What is MACD? )
  • Price is sitting on top of a support and the 50 period moving average
  • Next support is at 1080
  • Caveat: trendlines are subjective :)
Caution warranted!

-KaranZ

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Sunday, July 13, 2008

>> AAPL Elliot Wave (Update 2)







- 240 is the target
- 2nd wave labeling could be invalidated if the market goes lower and brings down AAPL with it.
-AAPL quarterly results should be out in a few days, that should give further hints on probable direction
(Updated as results out)

Update 2 (08-08)
- 2nd wave appears to be completed and third wave upmove seems to have begun.
- MACD, as well as price moving about 15, 100 & 200 day MA, and close to testing 45-day MA
- Possibility of a pullback, with a resumption in upmove.
- Worst case : 2nd wave still not over (small chance)

Update 1 (07/21):
- 2nd wave still in progress, AAPL results out today. More updates then.

Updates to continue.

Disclaimer : I am neither a professional trader, nor an expert in elliot. Take this analysis with a fistful of salt.

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Tuesday, October 24, 2006

>> OPTIONS & SPREADS: Trumpets, Lobsters, Champagne



"When I see motors gliding up at night to great houses in the fashionable squares, I journey in them: I ascend the stairways of those palaces; and ushered with eclat into drawing rooms of splendor, I sun myself in the painted smiles of the Mayfair Jezebels, and in that world of rouge and diamonds, glitter like a star.

"There I quaff the elixir and sweet essence of mundane triumph, eating truffles to the sound of trumpets and feasting at sunrise on lobster-salad and champagne.

"But it's all dust, it's all emptiness and ashes. Ah! far away from there I retire into the desert to contend triumphantly with Demons; to overcome in holy combats unspeakable Temptations, and purify, by prodigious purges, my heart of base desire."

Yes, occasionally Pearsall Smith's deep-rooted Quaker austerity would resurge, connecting opulence with sin and transforming him into a fancied ascetic on the desert. The Mayfair referred to was and is the fashionable, carriage-trade section of west London. You may have heard the velvet fog voice of Mel Torme sing, "Autumn in New York--transforms the slums into Mayfair."

Enraptured though Smith was by those "great houses in the fashionable squares," he ignored the fact that they could contain character-building and exchequer-strengthening qualities, qualities that a successful financial trader or a would-be success should not ignore. Here we raise the curtain on the key question of this piece: What is "good for" or "helpful to" or "appropriate for" an ace financial trader?

Think twice before you call anything "not important" or "not relevant." During World War I, General "Blackjack" Pershing was a stickler for discipline, even on seemingly minor matters not related to combat. He said, "The soldier who lets his shoes get dirty might let the firing mechanism of his rifle get dirty. The soldier who forgets to salute an officer might forget to obey him when ordered to go over the top."

Traders in stocks or futures or options need discipline and a clean firing mechanism; something akin to a good shooting eye; mapping and strategy skills at battalion headquarters in the field. Also, just as there is "conduct unbecoming an officer" there can be "conduct unbecoming a class-act trader."

In British naval terminology, the phrase "ship of the line" originated in 1706 and referred to a warship large enough to have a place in the line of battle. In the splinter-their-topsails-and-grab-their-gold realm of speculation, the "real pro" should and must be a "ship of the line" with heavy weaponry mentality-wise and ability-wise. Anything less gets smashed instantly and even the mightiest take their chances.

The jeweled clock in the captain's cabin may hold a significance other than time and more than sentiment. The naval officer who uses a Grub Street grog shop timepiece might also use junky maneuvers or gunnery technique. Far from "all emptiness and ashes," those "drawing rooms of splendor" that Pearsall Smith wrote about may well serve as a model. Keep a bit of the crystal and tapestry inside your soul. Also some Bank of England fiscal conservatism will not hurt. Several desiderata apply:

1. Try for class.

Who is not aware of the aura of distinction that surrounds the tycoon or the mogul? Phoning your broker certainly sounds classier than phoning your bookie. However, you err if you leave it at that and do not develop the idea further. Webster defines a "class act" as "something of outstanding quality or prestige."

Webster's numerous definitions of "class" run for 12 lines. Let us focus on one portion: "social rank. especially high social rank; high quality; ELEGANCE." The dictionary listing for "elegance" turned out to be a verbal jewelry store: "derived from the Latin 'eligere'--to elect, eligible, to select. Noun. Urbanity; tasteful richness of design or ornamentation (the sumptuous elegance of the furnishings); dignified gracefulness or restrained beauty of style--polish (the essay is marked by lucidity, wit and elegance); scientific precision, neatness and simplicity (the elegance of a mathematical proof)."

Synonym group: "choice, choicer, choicest. Adjectives. Selected with care; well-chosen; of high quality; worthy of being chosen. Syn. for 'elegant'." Check your own dictionary for "urbanity," "suave," "debonair." The speculator who incorporates essences from the preceding paragraph into his or her life and thinking and market schemata will acquire several more quail toward a full buffet, figuratively or literally.

You need not belong to a polo team or a yacht club. The Cartier gold-plated fountain pen for $800? The Rolex YachtMaster wristwatch for $19,000? Any investor who cannot find better things to do with the money deserves to buy Florida swampland. Involved are both the invisible and the visible, both the attitudinal and the tangible.

Horse racing is called "The Sport of Kings" but we all know that the kings are far outnumbered by the empty-pocketed horse-players who sit up nights thinking of ways to fool the pawnbrokers. This is conduct unbecoming a class-act trader. Also recall the adage, "The reason you never see any horse manure on the race track is that all the horses' asses are at the betting windows."

In a previous article on option spreads, I stated that the strategist is in effect a horse-owner at the long end of the spread and a bookmaker at the short end. I did NOT liken him to a blow-the-bankroll, adrenaline-junkie horse-player. The first two each take a risk in that no guarantee exists beforehand of the thoroughbred or the betting parlor proving profitable. Yet they cannot rightly be compared to the gambling degenerate who has wagered for years with nothing in the bank to show for it. The W. D. Gann maxim still stands: "Handle speculation like a business, not like a gamble."

Risk? Sure, but the businessman's risk, not the crapshooter's. The calculated risk. The limited-exposure risk. A tad of horse-betting may be all right as one of the trappings of Logan Pearsall Smith-type Anglophilia. Unless you tie your cravat like Lord Asquith at the derby, think twice about playing the ponies. If your love of things English is that pronounced, then you should also possess a sterling silver ewer and tureen, a Lord Macaulay or Thomas Carlyle hardbound first edition, and an antique chess set dating back to the Tudors or the Stuarts. Elegance!

2. Be tuned in to the psychology of "what makes it interesting."

Again the hot-blooded gambler provides a good example of what the class-act trader should avoid. How about a side bet on the football game to "make it interesting?" A card game is "no fun" unless money changes hands. In the throes of speculation fever, a trader in stocks or futures or options possesses a similar temperament. A business-like approach requires a certain detachment. It is fine to enjoy being the financial explorer or detective and great to make money at what you enjoy. The game is afoot, Watson! But . . . . too often, however, entertainment-value edges profitability off the road. The horse-player tingles at the sound of the bugle and the starting bell. Thrill upon thrill and, alas, empty pocket upon empty pocket. He would have done far better over the years by banking all that wagering money, but then no electricity through his nervous system. A speculator can likewise let electrical thrills eclipse profits. The successful trader may be compared to the distiller who makes money off of intoxicants but cannot be drunk while handling the complex equipment.

Investor psychology figures crucially, and within that, the psychology of what is interesting and why. That often confounds people. During my high school days, a fellow student mentioned to me that Mrs. Hagen, the math teacher, planned to take graduate courses that summer. Then he said, "How much can anybody love math?"

When diabetic neuropathy disabled my father, his brother, Dr. Dominic A. Donio, M.D. brought him some books and periodicals on the Civil War, a passion of doc's. My mother said to me, "How much can you love the Civil War?" People have asked the same question about everything from astronomy to model airplanes to Babylonian/Sumerian archaeology to avant-garde cinema to antique cars, full-size or shelf-miniature to the life of Disraeli to bird-watching to rococo paintings to mood & atmosphere photography to haunted Scottish castles to music from allegro on the Vivaldi violin to blues on the New Orleans saxophone.

It is no loss for you as either a person or trader if the depth of your fascination for and knowledge of various things puzzles the bored and directionless people, i.e., most people. If financial trading can prove both profitable and entertaining, fine, but if you must do without one, do without the latter. Too many traders and practically all gamblers have found the latter while doing without the former. The Renaissance man or woman--the person with a variety of interests and acuities--has the advantage. You need not float cash to "make it interesting." Ponder this. Expert on Italian Renaissance art Bernard Berenson wrote in his book The Venetian Painters of the Renaissance:

"In Venice there had long been a love of objects for their sensuous beauty. At an early date the Venetians had perfected an art in which there is scarcely any intellectual content whatever, and in which color, jewel-like or opaline, is almost everything. Venetian glass was at the same time an outcome of the Venetians' love of sensuous beauty and a continual stimulant to it. Pope Paul II, for example, who was a Venetian, took such a delight in the color and glow of jewels, that he was always looking at them and always handling them.

"When painting, accordingly, had reached the point where it was no longer dependent upon the Church, nor even expected to be decorative, but when it was used purely for pleasure, the day could not be far distant when people would expect painting to give them the same enjoyment they received from jewels and glass. In Bassano's works this taste found full satisfaction. Most of his pictures seem at first as dazzling, than as cooling and soothing, as the best kind of stained glass; while the coloring of details, particularly of those under high lights, is jewel-like, as clear and deep and satisfying as rubies and emeralds."

Contrast this. Turn-of-the-century steel magnate John W. Gates of American Steel & Wire Co. would be riding with a friend in a passenger train in the rain. They would bet each other a thousand dollars over which raindrop would reach the bottom of the window first. Under other circumstances, Gates and a horseplaying buddy would wet two cubes of sugar and bet each other a thousand on which cube a fly would land on first. Tacky curbstone wagering on a big budget. A pitiable way to make life interesting.

Had he been an art-lover, admission to a Venetian gallery or the Ducal Palace would have cost a few lire. Class need not be expensive, nor does an unlimited bank account always generate class or elegance. Gates could have bought an art collection but instead gravitated toward saloon bets near the brass cuspidor. A piano-roll object lesson. For better than government (bond, CD) profit, financial risk stands essential. But it is lousy entertainment fit for a drudge. Have other ways to "make life interesting" if you value your bankroll or your life.

3. Be the researcher and the learner.

At a writers' conference, author Gerald Green (Last Angry Man, Holocaust) lectured on the value of research, of sifting informational materials well and knowing Your subject-matter thoroughly before you write. To his surprise, the audience was visibly hostile toward him. Green had overlooked the tendency of writers' conferences to attract daydreaming incompetents. They envisioned fame and wealth as successful authors but he talked homework and sweat.

They the would-be mountain-climbers who never leave the house, he the real scaler of the Alps. How dare he open the door and let the chill in! Struggling would-be actors wait on tables and drive cabs during their quest for the Oscar or the Tony. However, you cannot expect self-proclaimed John Steinbecks or Margaret Mitchells to inconvenience themselves by doing research or to endure anything difficult. No wonder publishers are perennially deluged with smelly manuscripts. Sadly, this resembles the performance of many would-be millionaire traders.

At least 98% of humanity would rather eat barbed wire than dig for information. All homo sapiens like to think themselves knowledgeable--human ego being what it is--but only the tiniest percentage hunts down knowledge. The financial arena, like the publishing arena, is murderous to those who are long on hopes and short on the knowledge, the knack, the know-how.

The comic strip "B.C." stated the proverb, "Never get on a roller-coaster that leaves full and comes back half-empty." That could be a description of trading, writing, acting, gambling, considering how many quest forth and how few come back with anything. Also, some fields are worse than others in their coaxing. Major movie studios used to take out ads in newspapers nationwide, ads urging young people NOT to come to Hollywood in search of stardom.

Did you ever see an ad from a futures exchange or an options exchange, a race track or a casino, saying "Most of You Will Take a Pounding?" Of course, film studios made no profits from turn-downs or actor/actress over quantity. Those other places need loser dollars as much as winner dollars, perhaps more so since a winner is a minus on their ledgers, taking money out of the circuitry. To survive in such a milieu a speculator must be a man-of-war ship-of-the-line with an ample powder hold of knowledge and research data. Turn studying into a class act.

Financial and investment knowledge from the 1800's may be more applicable today than supposed. Data from today's financial news is sometimes relevant and sometimes not. Tons of informational rock hold only small specks of valuable radium. The amount of information needed is more than tiny but may be less than you think. Thus we arrive at the next rule.

4. Remember that you need not be an Einstein.

A fair number of physicists and engineers have taken up futures and options and have brought along calculus as the mathematical "hieroglyphics of the pharaohs." Do not feel intimidated by either the sheepskins or the abstruse symbolism. Stanley Yabroff, New York University professor of finance and manager of Gerald Commodities in Manhattan, said in a lecture, "You do not need calculus to trade successfully. All you need is the arithmetic you learned in fourth grade--add and subtract, multiply and divide."

I learned the fundamentals of calculus wall enough to receive a B in an NYU finance course that was heavy with it. In my trading, however, I found it to be excess baggage. My cousin Michael, a medical resident starting to invest in stocks, recently asked me on what basis I choose stocks for purposes of option spreads. I explained, "First, I look for stocks whose near-term options have meat on them, not nearly all devoured time-decay."

Since I specialize in horizontal calendar spreads or time spreads, I told him, I then look to see if the stock's far-term or farther-off-in-the-future options are lean or bargain-priced compared to the near-term ones, with the amount of time as a measuring factor. The time of our talk being early November, I pointed to Cisco Systems shares (stock symbol CSCO; option symbol CYQ) as an example. The December 55 put contract traded at about 2 while the stock was at 60.

The April contracts contained five times more time value than the December's. So did the CSCO/CYQ April 55 puts trade at 10, i.e., five time the 2? No, at 4-½. A bargain. Meaty near-term, lean far-term, enabling a spread strategist to sell the overpriced and buy the underpriced. I pointed out similar factors in the options of Microsoft (MSFT; MSQ), Netscape (NSCP; NQT), Compac (CPQ; CPQ) and IBM. Techno is beefy for now.

"Whether I use puts or calls depends on which way the underlying stock has been trending in recent months or weeks. A horizontal spread of calls above a rising stock, of puts below a descending one. If the stock crosses the "striking price" line and places the options 'in the money' buy back the near-term while the far-term gathers poundage. Fundamentals also help me to determine whether to choose puts or calls."

The most important fundamental in my calculations, though not the only one, is the PE or price-earnings ratio--the price of the share compared to the annual earnings per share. "You see, Mike? Cisco has a PE of 44, Microsoft 38, Netscape over 100. The average PE for exchange-listed stocks is about 18 so these shares appear inflated or overpriced. Compaq is 20 and IBM is only 13 which may sound good for call-buyers except that both those stocks appear to have hit a concrete ceiling in terms of upward progress lately." IBM soon climbed some, breaking 130.

Quarterly earnings reports must be termed a key fundamental because the day they come out they tend to shake a stock in one direction or another, temporarily or otherwise. A good earnings report in July launched IBM on what eventually became a 35-point-plus upward climb. A solid PE to start with helped much. Alas, the effect of the October quarterly report proved transitory. Netscape's October quarterly report scored a penny over analysts' expectations (.09 for the quarter instead of .08) so the shares climbed a few points then faltered, the PE still worse than 100. I currently have a put spread under it.

When preparing to take a spread position in either puts or calls, I find out from the broker WHEN the stock's quarterly earnings report comes out. Maybe I shall tolerate it amid my spread and maybe not. It adds to the risk. I use a discount broker who is theoretically an order-taker and not an information-getter but he can still obtain key fundamentals and news on a stock on his computer screen, i.e.; "First Boston upgrades Jones Consolidated stock from a hold to a buy."

So the company-underpinnings fundamentals that I use I could jot on half the back of an envelope. Yet they blend well with charting and trend-following. At a certain stage of development, the successful trader attains the knack of doing research well. At a more advanced stage he learns what research not to do and what data to omit or ignore. The footnotes in the annual report and the elevator conversation with the executive no longer seem like earth-shaking discoveries.

The legendary Nicholas Darvas habitually skipped the articles and columns in Barrons and turned directly to the Big Board listings. He declared, "It is too easy to be influenced by factors that don't mean anything." I read all of Barrons but I agree that one must ignore many quantities of data as useless or misleading, and the data comes from everywhere. One need not be an Einstein to trade successfully because so much of the intricate stuff should be overlooked anyway. Also you do not need the mathematical sigma and epsilon to tell you which options have meat hanging off of them.

However, this does not lessen the importance of research, that place on the map where so many money-losers step into quicksand. Jesse Livermore wrote, "The average American is from Missouri everywhere and at all times except when he goes to the brokers' offices and looks at the tape, whether it is stocks or commodities. The one game of all games that really requires study before making a play is the one he goes into without his usual highly intelligent preliminary and precautionary doubts. He will risk half his fortune in the stock market with less reflection than he devotes to the selection of a medium-priced automobile."

5. Remember the dictum of Don Vito Corleone: "Keep your friends close but your enemies closer."

The enemies of Mario Puzo's fictional Godfather were rival gangsters plotting against him. The enemies of the financial trader are the things that can go wrong. Study them and know them well, their details, quirks and capabilities. Frequently compose worst-case scenarios and figure that occasionally the worst will happen. Although I have quoted it before, that statement of Nicholas Darvas bears repeating: "There is no such thing as 'can't' in the stock market. A stock can do anything."

Minimize the risk. Limit your exposure. Panic early and do not let a small loss become a big one. Do not wind up having to pray, "God, please make the market turn around. I promise I'll never do it again." Anticipate beforehand what the market can do and what you will do if it does. Be able to say afterward, "That really exploded on the launching pad. I'm glad I sunk only a small portion of my capital into it." Even better, be able to say, I'm glad I pulled out early when the reversal started, lost a few pounds of flesh instead of the whole side of beef."

I write this over a period of several days. A couple of pages back I said I had a put spread under Netscape. While other traders use mental stop-losses, I have evolved in my head tendency to form graded stop-losses. As Netscape shares hovered in the mid-40s price range, my put spread stretched horizontally at 40, with 10 November contracts at the short end and 10 Januarys at the long end. Time decayed the short November puts to just under half a point. My money in the "gap" was a trifle ahead.

I could have bought back 10 Novembers for less than $500 to close out the short end, then created a new short end by selling 10 Decembers with the same striking price of 40 for slightly under $2,000. Nearly a $1,500 gain with a couple of phone calls, one to buy back November's, one to sell December's covered as were the November's by the January's. Tempting, but I wanted nothing to do with puts unless the underlying stock was descending and nothing to do with calls unless it was climbing. Otherwise the far-term long end of the spread could shrivel into a skeleton.

Ergo, the graded mental stop-loss. I figured the stock price in the 46 & a fraction/47 & a fraction area to be okay but fence straddling, 44/45 good, 42/43 great, and with put options the lower the share price the better of course. On the upper end, 48 or higher even fractionally was forbidden territory. Well, on the first Tuesday in November--election day--Netscape rose to 48-_ bid/48-¼-ask late in the trading day. I pulled out of both the short and long positions (the former first as required since it is covered by the latter) for a tallied 20% loss.

With a businessman's detachment I accepted the minus. Then I voted--the president, the man in congress, the two women in the state legislature; occasionally I had written to the latter three and others in government. The vote, the letters, jury service if practicable, participation in the community--all are herein recommended as good ideas for the class-act trader.

The next day, Netscape rose to a Wednesday high of 50-½, more than two additional points of bad news for put-holders. As I write this on Thursday evening, it showed a high today of 53-_ and a close of 53-_, up 3-_. During this month of Thanksgiving, I feel thankful that I ventured only a limited amount of capital and that I "panicked early" instead of "sitting tight and awaiting a turn-around." And I give thanks that I kept my enemy close, knew him well, knew what he can do. My graded mental stop-loss mapped out good territory, the great and ecstatic zones, and in the other direction the forbidden territory. Toes across that boundary stopped a bad deal early. Time for turkey and gravy.

6. Be careful what you call superstition.

Netscape's fundamentals (a poor FE and a piddling quarterly increase) pointed downward but the Technicals of the immediate past pointed upward. Most people know of the tendency of investment fundamentalists to dismiss technical charting as a palm-reading diagram. Yet it is scientific thanks to its basis in evidence and observation.

For Jones to reach Tenth Avenue from First, he has to cross Third and Fourth. Having crossed them, there is no guarantee that he will reach Tenth. Nevertheless, for people who do reach Tenth, it is hard-as-iron essential that they cross the intervening space first. A stock that climbs some distance might not reach the top of the chart, but those that do reach the top must climb some intermediate distances first. Thus those intermediate segments--the chartist's "higher tops and higher bottoms"--provide a workable signal if not a perfect one. Due to the imperfection, stop-losses or bail-outs can be necessary.

The fundamentals of a thoroughbred are the facts about him before he runs the race--bloodlines, track record, trainers opinion. Technical charting is the early furlongs of the race. If the good-fundamentals horse makes a weak showing there he probably will not win the race. If a lesser-bloodlines stallion or a dark horse zooms, take notice. Financial trading allows you to place bets or switch bets while the ponies run. Do not bet everything because anything can happen and any horse can stumble. But let what is happening before your eyes count for something.

Forever more, the fundamentalist and the technical chartist will denounce each other as either the sham-wizard or the theoretician out of touch with hard reality. Remember that you need not be an Einstein to blend the two.

7. Cultivate a suitable amount of patience.

I said a suitable amount, not an endless amount. Just as you demand profits from your investments, you should also demand them within a reasonable length of time. You are not a fruit tree planter who will wait a couple of decades for those richly-laden boughs. Slow-growth stocks and 10-year bonds may have a place in your portfolio, but a trader is almost by definition someone who expects the action and the profits to occur faster.

However, trying too much for lightning speed is the mark of a gambling degenerate. Why do you suppose "The Sport of Kings" became a wagerer's sport? A horse race is quick. Little time lapses between placing the bet and the results. It is the sport that comes closest in rapidity to a roll of the dice or a turn of the roulette wheel or a hand of poker. If you handle the trading of stocks or futures or options like a business instead of like a gamble, you should not have to wait eons for a profit but neither should you be panting and anxious.

Each form of trading has its own tempo and time-frame. I have found with option spreads that if the underlying stock moves more than slightly, action can occur within less than a week. If the shares tend toward inertness, time-decay on the short end of at least a calendar spread is at least a two to three-week phenomenon. With options, thinking in monthly cycles practically "comes with the territory," as with, after expiration, selling the following month.

With scientific, business-like financial trading, as with the curing of hams or the birth of calves or the brewing of beer, you adjust yourself to the time that the processes require, not the other way around. The patience required in breeding three-year olds for a derby and the short patience of horse gamblers stands as an immense contrast fixed in concrete. If you want to be like the owner of Whirlaway instead of like the sucker phoning his bookie, then be sure you resemble the one and not the other in scientific-mindedness, business sense and patience.

8. Be skeptical of what passes for "tradition" or "science" or "class."

In my April/May 1996 article in CTCN, I hatcheted the right-wing reactionaries for the simple reason that they have as much business calling themselves 'traditionalists" as a gypsy fortuneteller has calling herself a "scientific" palm-reader. The same is true of their pretensions toward what is "classy" or "scientific." Consider, for example, their anti-rook & roll witch-hunt hysteria. You will not hear talk like that at the opera house during intermissions of The Sicilian Vespers." Well over their heads, that level of culture fosters a certain tolerance and broad-mindedness.

Webster defines a "reactionary" as "one who advocates a return to certain customs or values of the past." The dictionary does not mention that reactionaryism is a short-range spyglass whose focus disintegrates beyond the barber shop quartet or the Model A or Laurel & Hardy or the Good Old Summertime sheet music at the dime store. A three-masted, iron-cannon trader requires heavier lading than this in his or her class-act cargo hold. "The solider who accepts dime novels about white-hat cowboys as "old-style literature" might accept barrelhouse rumors or huckstered land as a financial battle-plan."

While president, Ronald Reagan remarked that he "had doubts about the theory of evolution." At another time during his term, he said he "liked it better when actors kept their clothes on." Who was Reagan wooing when he made these statements? The archaeologists and paleontologists? The lovers of Dutch & Flemish paintings or Greco-Roman sculpture? Obviously he was courting the right-wing reactionaries and the fundamentalists, the lovers of "time-honored tradition" who saw every movie that Doris Day or Pat Boone ever made.

Anyone whose notion of tradition or elegance plunges deeper may be suspect. William F. Buckley, Jr.'s magazine The National Review (Sept. 16, 1996) carries a page 18 warning against "divisive multi-culturalism, and all the other symptoms of moral decay."

Rush Limbaugh made similar statements on TV. There are those who can appreciate why the city of Florence came to be called "the second Athens" and why Dresden with its art treasures has been termed "the German Florence."

But watch it. The Greek-American or Italian-American or German-American who embraces his heritage and advocates ethnic diversity in the US stands accused of "divisive multi-culturalism, and all the other symptoms of moral decay." Supposedly, the "ideal American" is the backwater Bible-thumper whose heritage includes Norman Rockwell homogeneity and covered bridges, candy kisses music, the white-hat cowboy who always won, and no bare navels on the film screen.

Venetian painters of the 1500's showed fine detailing that Richard Muther called "the delicate shades of red hair and the soft gleam of powdered skin." Yet did anyone ever hear William F. Buckley mention Titian or Tintoretto, or for that matter Rachmaninoff or Balanchine, to his "old time religion" fans or his tobacco-growing fans or his blue-collar fans? He knows enough not to talk over their heads.

Bill Buckley's smattering of Anglophilia tend more toward Prince Albert on the tobacco can than toward Thomas Gainsborough or Christopher Wren. Even worse than robbing Peter to pay Paul is robbing Benjamin Britten to pay the Moral Majority. Anglo-American traders who want ship-fittings of elegant English brass are advised to skip The National Review and go straight to the writings of Sir Joshua Reynolds, John Ruskin, Samuel Johnson, Thomas Middleton and Joseph Addison. Macaulay and Carlyle have already been mentioned.

How exquisitely authors' inks and ale blended at the Mermaid Tavern in London's Cheapside district. How adeptly the Venetian artist captured the sapphire and turquoise of the lagoons in his pigments. My fascination with word origins brought me to the discovery that "exquisite" derives from Latin and originally meant "to quest after" or "to search out." "Adept" sprang from late Latin and referred to the alchemist who discovered how to transmute base metals into gold. They thought he existed.

Questing and searching, adeptness and gold--all fit into the financial trader's mission or strategy. Slice off a part of the class and elegance from Mayfair's "world of rouge and diamonds." Trumpets and lobsters and champagne can sit pleasantly on both the digestive system and the soul.

Source - Greg Donio

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>> Gunning for Stops in the Commodity Futures Trading Pit



It's a few minutes before commodities futures trading closes on The New York Commodity Exchange one afternoon, all hell broke loose. Another of the many trading games commodity traders play was underway.

In the Cooper Futures trading pit, a sudden surge of copper buy orders arrived in the trader pit on the trading floor. Normally such late trading activity barely moves the-futures price. But on this trading day, so many large commodities traders left early for the London Metal Exchange's gala annual dinner that there weren't many copper futures sellers around to accommodate the copper futures buyers. Copper prices soared nearly 3-cents a pound, which is a comparatively large size price move.

The few junior traders still at their trading posts quickly concluded that someone was trying to exploit the market's non-attention to move cooper futures prices about $1.07 a pound, a technical price area deemed crucial by traders who use technical analysis of the market. A price move above $1.07, it was widely assumed, would trigger "buy" signals amount trend-watching commodity funds, prompting the automatic execution of a heap of standing orders from off-floor traders who earlier placed standing orders to buy on a buy-stop.

Such ahead-of-time orders are known as "stops," which is why this game is called "gunning for stops." The idea was to induce a flood of buying above $1.07, whereupon cooper would soar even higher, at which point the trader who started the game could sell out at a profit.

This trading game probably fails more often than it works, traders say. In this case, the price touched $1.07, but didn't rise any further; it fell back a penny at the close. That's the risk people run in gunning for stops, traders say. Yet the game can pay off handsomely, and it is much in evidence in many of today's commodity markets.

Gunning for stops can work because so much commodity futures trading today is based on trading-systems which use widely available commonly used technical indicators such as moving averages and momentum trade algorithms with authoritative sounding technical names such as relative strength and stochastics. In some cases, traders can guess from market talk and by looking at price charts where the key levels are. And they know that traders usually place buy-stops or sell-stops around those critical areas.

Money managers and other futures traders and home-based daytraders have complained privately for years about floor traders engineering price movements to trigger stops and computer-generated signals to buy and sell. But in this and other cases recently, they suspect, very large players were trying their hand at the game. If so, they say it is a disturbing development. "This is a very controversial issue," says one commodity futures money manager. We're very, very unhappy about it."

Who gets hurt by traders playing the game? Anyone whose stop was triggered artificially. Those people may be forced to take profits too early, sustain losses they wouldn't otherwise incur or take positions based on false price signals, traders and analysts say. And when those traders are money managers, their investors get hurt. Technical traders are particularly vulnerable to getting whipsawed by these short-term price swings, says Fred Demler, metals economist at PaineWebber Group Inc.

Sumitomo Corp's Yasuo Hamanaka later confirmed he had placed buy orders at the end of the 10-8 session, but denied they were speculative. Mr. Hamanaka has a reputation as an aggressive trader. He made similar denials - met with skepticism - when he was rumored to be behind squeezes in the London Futures Market the prior year.

In recent years, Middle Eastern syndicates are thought to have used the gunning-for-stops strategy in precious metals markets. And some people think big U.S. commodity futures trading funds have figured out how to profit either from riding the coattails of other players using the strategy or by doing it themselves.

Traders won't admit they gun for stops. And regulators say it's next to impossible to prove that a price move was the result of manipulation, which is illegal. But few people in the market deny that it goes on, and some say they've noticed it occurring more frequently in the past year.

"It happens all the time," says a sugar trader. Recently, he adds, he's seen more investors "getting stopped out" by a sudden-moving market that triggers their stop orders. That could simply be the unorchestrated result of a choppy, thinly traded market, he says, but people are blaming traders for gunning their stops.

"When it's happened to me, I've been extremely angry," says George Milling Stanley, a precious metals analyst at Shearson Lehman Brothers. Trade recommendations he has made to individual investors have lost money, he says, because traders went gunning for stops. For example, suppose he thinks gold prices will rise and recommends clients buy it at $335 an ounce - adding that they should put in a stop-loss order at $333 in case he is wrong. Then suppose some traders gun the market down to the stop levels, which sells the investors out of their positions at losses, and the price subsequently rises above $335 as originally expected. "You feel like someone's stolen the march on you," he says.

Jeff Nichols, a Boca Raton, Fla., precious metals consultant, says a well-capitalized floor trader can occasionally pull off such a move in small, thinly traded markets, particularly if other traders sense what's going on and join in. But in larger markets, such as currencies, it takes a lot of money to gun for stops successfully because the player has to be able to buy or sell contracts in significant quantities, Mr. Nichols says.

Well-known commodities trader Richard J. Dennis says he tries to anticipate where technical traders have placed their stops and gauge the effect that activation of the stops will have on prices. "If you look at charts, you can make a reasonable guess about where the stops are," Mr Dennis says, adding that he uses this information to avoid those areas. "They're a little bit like land mines going off, and you don't want to walk into the mine field."

Some Wall Street "rocket scientists" have honed the guesswork more precisely. They are able to identify which technical system is prevailing at the moment and what signals the system will give out at different price levels, Mr. Nichols says. These sophisticated traders then use that insight to devise trading strategies accordingly, he says.

One futures money manager thinks stop-gunning traders neither guess nor use computers, but instead are learning through their brokers and other sources where the big orders are sitting. "I wonder if this were the securities industry, if (traders who gun for stops) wouldn't be in jail for this type of thing," he says.

Brokers who disclose such information would be violating federal regulations and exchange rules. But there are more subtle ways the information leaks out, traders say, such as through winks and nods and euphemisms. "They don't come out and say "I have an order at six," says a former New York trader. "They say, I think there's good resistance at six."

In the crowded trading pits, traders can also find out about stop orders when they catch a glimpse-accidentally or intentionally-of other brokers' order cards, says an analyst. Because they have little hope of a regulatory crackdown, gunning victims say they have learned to accept it as just another risk in trading commodities. "If you want to play with the big boys, that's the way it works," Mr. Nichols says.

To avoid being stung, many money managers no longer place resting stop-loss orders, says Jane Martin, executive director of the Managed Futures Association. Other futures market players, says Mr. M-Stanley of Shearson, have learned to protect themselves by placing stop loss orders further away from the current futures price level. Experienced traders recommend moving stops (known as bumping stops) when activity looks suspicious. Trading market users must be especially alert during slow-trading periods, such as during banking, international or religious holidays, says Mr. Demier of Paine Webber.

Still others try to take advantage of the trading strategy without actually playing it. M. Pinson, partner of Fundamental Futures, an Iowa money-management firm, says her trading firm watches for such things as gunning stops for opportunities to execute trades it would have made anyway. "We have learned to wait until the technical traders stop-loss orders are triggered," she says. As the "big machine traders" start selling futures, her firm goes the opposite direction and starts buying futures contracts, she explains.

Source – Futures Advisor / Wall Street Journal

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Sunday, October 15, 2006

>> Options Trading Volume And Open Interest



Price movements in the options market result from the decisions of millions of traders. But there are a number of useful statistics besides price movements that tell you what those other market participants are doing. Here we take a closer look at two factors you should consider when trading options: daily trading volume and open interest.


1. Daily Trading Volume
Trading volume gives you important insight into the strength of the current market direction for the option's underlying stock. The volume, or market breadth, is measured in shares and tells you how meaningful the price movement in the market is.

Keep in mind that trading volume is relative and needs to be compared to the average daily volume of the stock in question. A large percentage change in price accompanied by larger than normal volume is a solid indication of market strength in the direction of the change. But large percentage increases in price accompanied by small trading volumes are less likely to indicate a market direction. In fact, they may indicate that a reversal is likely in the near term.


2. The Importance of Open Interest
Open interest is a concept all option traders need to understand. Although it is always one of the data fields on most option quote displays - along with bid price, ask price, volume and implied volatility - many traders ignore open interest. But while it may be less important than the option's price, or even current volume, open interest provides useful information that should be considered when entering an option position.

First, let's look at exactly what open interest represents. Unlike stock trading, in which there is a fixed number of shares to be traded, option trading can involve the creation of a new option contract when a trade is placed. Open interest will tell you the total number of option contracts that are currently open - in other words, contracts that have been traded but not yet liquidated by either an offsetting trade or an exercise or assignment.

For example, say we look at Microsoft and open interest tells us that there have been 81,700 options opened for the March 27.5 call option. You may be wondering if that number refers to options bought or sold. The answer is that you have no way to know for sure.

When you buy or sell an option, the transaction needs to be entered as either an opening or a closing transaction. If you buy 10 of the Microsoft March 27.5 calls, you are buying the calls to 'open'. That purchase will add 10 to the open interest figure. If you wanted to get out of the position, you would sell those same options to 'close' and open interest would then fall by 10.

Selling an option can also add to the open interest. If you owned 1,000 shares of Microsoft and wanted to do a covered call by selling 10 of the March 27.5 calls, you would be entering a sale to open. Since it is an opening transaction, it would add 10 to the open interest. If you later wanted to repurchase the options, you would enter a transaction to buy to close. Open interest would then decrease by 10.

Things get a little more complicated if the options you trade are not created by the transaction, but instead the other side is taken by someone doing a closing transaction. For example, if you are buying 10 of the Microsoft March 27.5 calls to open, and you are matched with someone that is selling 10 of the Microsoft March 27.5 calls to close, then the total open interest number will not change.

So when you are looking at the total open interest of an option, there is no way of knowing whether the options were bought or sold - which is probably why many option traders ignore open interest altogether. However, you shouldn't assume that the open interest figure provides no important information.

One way to use open interest is to look at it relative to the volume of contracts traded. When the volume exceeds the existing open interest on a given day, this suggests that trading in that option was exceptionally high that day. Open interest can help you determine whether there is unusually high or low volume for any particular option.

Open interest also gives you key information regarding the liquidity of an option. If there is no open interest for an option, there is no secondary market for that option. When options have large open interest, it means they have a large number of buyers and sellers, and an active secondary market will increase the odds of getting option orders filled at good prices. So, all other things being equal, the bigger the open interest, the easier it will be to trade that option at a reasonable spread between the bid and ask.


3. Conclusion
Trading does not occur in a vacuum. Indicators and reports that show you what other market participants are doing can be a valuable addition to your trading system. Daily trading volume and open interest can be used to find trading ideas you might otherwise overlook. These indicators are also useful for making sure that the options you trade are liquid, allowing you easily to enter and exit a trade, as well as ensure you get the best possible price.

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Thursday, October 12, 2006

>>Open Interest



Contents of this article –

1) What is Open Interest

2) Discovering Open Interest – Part I

3) Discovering Open Interest – Part II


What is Open Interest

1. The total number of options and/or futures contracts that are not closed or delivered on a particular day.

2. The number of buy market orders before the stock market opens.

A common misconception is that open interest is the same thing as volume of options and futures trades. This is not correct as demonstrated in the following example:

On Jan 1, A buys an option, which leaves an open interest and also creates trading volume of 1.
On Jan 2, C and D create trading volume of 5 and there are also 5 more options left open.
On Jan 3, A takes an offsetting position and therefore open interest is reduced by 1, and trading volume is 1.
On Jan 4, E simply replaces C and therefore open interest does not change, trading volume increases by 5.

Open interest, the total number of open contracts on a security, applies primarily to the futures market. It is often used to confirm trends and trend reversals for futures and options contracts.


Discovering Open Interest – Part II

What Open Interest Tells Us
A contract has both a buyer and a seller, so the two market players combine to make one contract. The open-interest position that is reported each day represents the increase or decrease in the number of contracts for that day, and it is shown as a positive or negative number. An increase in open interest along with an increase in price is said to confirm an upward trend. Similarly, an increase in open interest along with a decrease in price confirms a downward trend. An increase or decrease in prices while open interest remains flat or declining may indicate a possible trend reversal.

Rules of Open Interest
Now, there are certain rules to open interest that must be understood and remembered. They have been written in many different publications, so here I have included an excellent version of these rules written by chartist Martin Pring in his book "Martin Pring on Market Momentum":

  1. If prices are rising and open interest is increasing at a rate faster than its five-year seasonal average, this is a bullish sign. More participants are entering the market, involving additional buying, and any purchases are generally aggressive in nature.
  2. If the open-interest numbers flatten following a rising trend in both price and open interest, take this as a warning sign of an impending top.
  3. High open interest at market tops is a bearish signal if the price drop is sudden, since this will force many 'weak' longs to liquidate. Occasionally, such conditions set off a self-feeding, downward spiral.
  4. An unusually high or record open interest in a bull market is a danger signal. When a rising trend of open interest begins to reverse, expect a bear trend to get underway.
  5. A breakout from a trading range will be much stronger if open interest rises during the consolidation. This is because many traders will be caught on the wrong side of the market when the breakout finally takes place. When the price moves out of the trading range, these traders are forced to abandon their positions. It is possible to take this rule one step further and say the greater the rise in open interest during the consolidation, the greater the potential for the subsequent move.
  6. Rising prices and a decline in open interest at a rate greater than the seasonal norm is bearish. This market condition develops because short covering and not fundamental demand is fueling the rising price trend. In these circumstances money is flowing out of the market. Consequently, when the short covering has run its course, prices will decline.
  7. If prices are declining and the open interest rises more than the seasonal average, this indicates that new short positions are being opened. As long as this process continues it is a bearish factor, but once the shorts begin to cover it turns bullish.
  8. A decline in both price and open interest indicates liquidation by discouraged traders with long positions. As long as this trend continues, it is a bearish sign. Once open interest stabilizes at a low level, the liquidation is over and prices are then in a position to rally again.

Chart Created with Tradestation


In this 2002 chart of the COMEX Gold Continuous Pit Contract, the price is rising, the open interest is falling off and the volume is diminishing. As a rule of thumb, this scenario results in a weak market.

If prices are rising and the volume and open interest are both up, the market is decidedly strong. If the prices are rising and the volume and open interest are both down, the market is weakening. Now, if prices are declining and the volume and open interest are up, the market is weak, but when prices are declining and the volume and open interest are down, the market is gaining strength.


Discovering Open Interest – Part II

In the Part 1 of this two-part series, we opened the door to open interest, an indicator often used by traders to confirm trends and trend reversals for both the futures and options markets. Open interest represents the total number of open contracts on a security.

This article explains the importance of the relationship between volume and open interest in confirming trends and their impending changes.

Volume
Used in conjunction with open interest, volume represents the total number of shares or contracts that have changed hands in a one-day trading session in the commodities or options market. The greater the amount of trading during a market session, the higher the trading volume. A new student to technical analysis can easily see that the volume represents a measure of intensity or pressure behind a price trend. The greater the volume the more we can expect the existing trend to continue rather than reverse.

Technicians believe that volume precedes price, which means that the loss of either upside price pressure in an uptrend or downside pressure in a downtrend will show up in the volume figures before presenting itself as a reversal in trend on the bar chart. The rules that have been set in stone for both volume and open interest are combined because of their similarity; however, having said that, there are always exceptions to the rule, and we should look at them.

General Rules for Volume and Open Interest
Let's summarize these with an easy-to-read chart:


So, price action increasing in an uptrend and open interest on the rise are interpreted as new money coming into the market (reflecting new buyers) and is considered bullish. Now, if the price action is rising and the open interest is on the decline, short sellers covering their positions are causing the rally. Money is therefore leaving the marketplace and is considered bearish.

If prices are in a downtrend and open interest is on the rise, chartists know that new money is coming into the market, showing aggressive new short selling. This scenario will prove out a continuation of a downtrend and a bearish condition. Lastly, if the total open interest is falling off and prices are declining, the price decline is being caused by disgruntled long position holders being forced to liquidate their positions. Technicians view this scenario as a strong position technically because the downtrend will end as all the sellers have sold their positions. The following chart therefore emerges:


When open interest is high at a market top and the price falls off dramatically, this scenario should be considered bearish. In other terms, this means that all of the long position holders that bought near the top of the market are now in a loss position, and their panic to sell keeps the price action under pressure.

There is no need to study a chart for this indicator since the rules are the most important area to study and remember. If you are a new technician starting to understand the basic parameters of this study, look at many different charts of gold, silver, and other commodities so you can begin to recognize the patterns that develop.

Remember it's your money - invest it wisely.

Source: Investopedia


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Wednesday, October 11, 2006

>> 50+ Basic Rules for Future Traders



Basic Rules for Futures Traders

  1. Follow the trends. This is probably some of the hardest advice for a trader to follow because the personality of the typical futures trader is not "one of the crowd." Futures traders (and futures brokers) are highly individualistic; the markets seem to attract those who are. Very simply, it takes a special kind of person, not "one of the crowd," to earn enough risk capital to get involved in the futures markets. So the typical trader and the typical broker must guard against their natural instincts to be highly individualistic, to buck the trend.
  2. Know why you are in the markets. To relieve boredom? To hit it big? When you can honestly answer this question, you may be on your way to successful futures trading.
  3. Use system, and stick to it.
  4. Apply money management techniques to your trading.
  5. Do not overtrade.
  6. Take a position only when you know where your profit goal is and where you are going to get out if the market goes against you.
  7. Trade with the trends, rather than trying to pick tops and bottoms.
  8. Don't trade many markets with little capital.
  9. Don't just trade the volatile contracts.
  10. Calculate the risk/reward ratio before putting a trade on, then guard against the risk of holding it too long.
  11. Establish your trading plans before the market opening to eliminate emotional reactions.
  12. Decide on entry points, exit points, and objectives. Subject your decisions to only minor changes during the session. Profits are for those who act, not react. Don't change during the session unless you have a very good reason.
  13. Follow your plan. Once a position is established and stops are selected, do not get out unless the stop is reached, or the fundamental reason for taking the position changes.
  14. Use technical signals (charts) to maintain discipline – the vast majority of traders are not emotionally equipped to stay disciplined without some technical tools. Use discipline to eliminate impulse trading.
  15. Have a disciplined, detailed trading plan for each trade; i.e., entry, objective, exit, with no changes unless hard data changes. Disciplined money management means intelligent trading allocation and risk management. The overall objective is end-of-year bottom line, not each individual trade.
  16. When you have successful a trade, fight the natural tendency to give some of it back.
  17. Use a disciplined trade selection system...an organized, systematic process to eliminate impulse or emotional trading.
  18. Trade with a plan – not with hope, greed, or fear. Plan where you will get in the market, plan how much you will risk on the trade, and plan where you will take your profits.
  19. Cut losses short. Most importantly, cut your losses short, let your profits run. It sounds simple, but it isn't. Let's look at some of the reasons many traders have a hard time "cuttings losses short." First, it's hard for any of us to admit we've made a mistake. Let's say a position starts going against you, and all your "good" reasons for putting the position on are still there. You say to yourself, "it's only a temporary set-back. After all (you reason), the more the position goes against me, the better chance it has to come back – the odds will catch up." Also, the reasons for entering the trade are still there. By now you've lost quite a bit; you sell yourself on giving it "one more day." It's easy to convince yourself because, by this time, you probably aren't thinking very clearly about the position. Besides, you've lost so much already, what's a little more? Panic sets in, and then comes the worst, the most devastating, the most fallacious reasoning of all, when you figure: "That contract doesn't expire for a few more months; things; are bound to turn around in the meantime."
  20. "So it goes; so cut those losses short. In fact, many experienced traders say if a position still goes against you the second day in, get out. Cut those losses fast, before the losing position starts to infect you, before you "fall in love" with it. The easiest way is to inscribe across the front of your brain, "Cut my losses fast." Use stop loss orders, aim for a Rs. 5000 per contract loss limit...or whatever works for you, but do it.
  21. Let profits run. Now to the "letting profits run" side of the equation. This is even harder because who knows when those profits will stop running? Well, of course, no one does, but there are some things to consider. First of all, be aware that there is an urge in all of us to want to win...even if it's only by a narrow margin. Most of us were raised that way. Win – even if it's only by one touchdown, one point, or one run. Following that philosophy almost assures you of losing in the futures markets because the nature of trading futures usually means that there are more losers than winners. The winners are often big, big, big winners, not "one run" winners. Here again, you have to fight human nature. Let's say you've had several losses (like most traders), and now one of your positions is developing into a pretty good winner. The temptation to close it out is universally overwhelming. You're sick about all those losses, and here's a chance to cash in on a pretty good winner. You don't want it to get away. Besides, it gives you a nice warm feeling to close out a winning position and tell yourself (and maybe even your friends) how smart you were (particularly if you're beginning to doubt yourself because of all those past losers).
  22. That kind of reasoning and emotionalism have no place in futures trading; therefore, the next time you are about to close out a winning position, ask yourself why. If the cold, calculating, sound reasons you used to put on the position are still there, you should strongly consider staying. Of course, you can use trailing stops to protect your profits, but if you are exiting a winning position out of fear...don't; out of greed...don't; out of ego... don't; out of impatience...don't; out of anxiety...don't; out of sound fundamental and/or technical reasoning...do.
  23. "You can avoid the emotionalism, the second guessing, the wondering, the agonizing, if you have a sound trading plan (including price objectives, entry points, exit points, risk-reward ratios, stops, information about historical price levels, seasonal influences, government reports, prices of related markets, chart analysis, etc.) and follow it. Most traders don't want to bother, they like to "wing it." Perhaps they think a plan might take the fun out of it for them. If you're like that and trade futures for the fun of it, fine. If you're trying to make money without a plan – forget it. Trading a sound, smart plan is the answer to cutting your losses short and letting your profits run.
  24. Do not overstay a good market. If you do, you are bound to overstay a bad one also.
  25. Take your lumps. Just be sure they are little lumps. Very successful traders generally have more losing trades than winning trades. It's just that they don't leave any hang-ups about admitting they're wrong, and have the ability to close out losing positions quickly.
  26. Trade all positions in futures on a performance basis. The position must give a profit by the end of the second day after the position is taken, or else get out.
  27. Program your mind to accept many small losses. Program your mind to "sit still" for a few large gains.
  28. Learn to trade from the short side. Most people would rather own something (go long) than owe something (go short). Markets can (and should) also be traded frown the short side.
  29. Watch for divergences in related markets – is one market making a new high and another not following?
  30. Recognize that fear, greed, ignorance, generosity, stupidity, impatience, self-delusion, etc., can cost you a lot more money than the market(s) going against you, and that there is no fundamental method to recognize these factors.
  31. Learn the basics of futures trading. It's amazing how many people simply don't know what they're doing. They're bound to lose, unless they have a strong broker to guide them and keep them out of trouble.
  32. Standing aside is a position. Patience is important.
  33. Client and broker must have rapport. Chemistry between account executive and client is very important; the odds of picking the right Account Executive (AE) the first time are remote. Pick a broker who will protect you from yourself...greed, ego, fear, subconscious desire to lose (actually true with some traders). Ask someone who trades if they know a good futures broker. If you find one who has room for you, give him your account.
  34. Sometimes, when things aren't going well and you're thinking about changing brokerage firms, think about just changing AEs instead. Phone the manager of the local office, let him describe some of the other AEs in the office, and see if any of them seem right enough to have a first meeting with. Don't worry about getting your account executive in trouble; the office certainly would rather have you switch AEs than to lose your business altogether.
  35. Broker/client psychology must be in tune, or else the broker and client should part company early in the program. Client and broker should be in touch repeatedly, so when the time comes, both parties are mentally programmed to take the necessary action without delay.
  36. Most people do not have the time or the experience to trade futures profitably, so choosing a broker is the most important step to profitable futures trading.
  37. When you go stale, get out of the markets for a while. Trading futures is demanding, and can be draining – especially when you're losing. Step back; get away from it all to recharge your batteries.
  38. Thrill seekers usually lose. If you're in futures simply for the thrill of gambling, you'll probably lose because, chances are, the money does not mean as much to you as the excitement. Just knowing this about yourself may cause you to be more prudent, which could improve your trading record. Have a business-like approach to the markets.
  39. Anyone who is inclined to speculate in futures should look at speculation as a business, and treat it as such. Do not regard it as a pure gamble, as so many people do. If speculation is a business, anyone in that business should learn and understand it to the best of his ability.
  40. Approach the markets with a reasonable time goal. When you open an account with a broker, don't just decide on the amount of money, decide on the length of time you should trade. This approach helps you conserve your equity, and helps avoid the Las Vegas approach of "Well, I'll trade till my stake runs out." Experience shows that many who have been at it over a long period of time end up making money.
  41. Don't trade on rumors. If you have, ask yourself this: "Over the long run, have I made money or lost money trading on rumors? O.K. then, stop it.
  42. Beware of all tips and inside information. Wait for the market's action to tell you if the information you've obtained is accurate, then take a position with the developing trend.
  43. Don't trade unless you're well financed...so that market action, not financial condition, dictates your entry and exit from the market. If you don't start with enough money, you may not be able to hang in there if the market temporarily turns against you.
  44. Be more careful if you're extra smart. Smart people very often put on a position a little too early. They see the potential for a price movement before it becomes actual. They become worn out or "tapped out," and aren't around when a big move finally gets under way. They were too busy trading to make money.
  45. Never add to a losing position. Stay out of trouble, your first loss is your smallest loss.
  46. Analyze your losses. Learn from your losses. They're expensive lessons; you paid for them. Most traders don't learn from their mistakes because they don't like to think about them.
  47. Survive! In futures trading, the ones who stay around long enough to be there when those "big moves" come along are often successful.
  48. If you're just getting into the markets, be a small trader for at least a year, then analyze your good trades and your bad ones. You can really learn more from your bad ones.
  49. Carry a notebook with you, and jot down interesting market information. Write down the market openings, price ranges, your fills, stop orders, and your own personal observations. Re-read your notes from time to time; use them to help analyze your performance.
  50. "Rome was not built in a day," and no real movement of importance ends in one day. A speculator should have enough excess margin in his account to provide staying power so he can participate in big moves.
  51. Take windfall profits (profits that have no sound reasons for occurring).
  52. Periodically redefine the kind of capital you have in the markets. If your personal financial situation changes and the risk capital becomes necessary capital, don't wait for "just one more day" or "one more price tick," get out right away. If you don't, you'll most likely start trading with your heart instead of your head, and then you'll surely lose.
  53. Always use stop orders, always...always... always.

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Friday, September 22, 2006

>> Option Spreads



Contents of this article –

1) Option Spreads: Introduction

2) Option Spreads: Selling And Buying To Form A Spread

3) Option Spreads: Vertical Spreads

4) Option Spreads: Debit Spreads Structure

5) Option Spreads: Credit Spreads Structure

6) Option Spreads: Horizontal Spreads

7) Option Spreads: Diagonal Spreads

8) Option Spreads: Tips And Things To Consider

9) Options Spreads: Conclusion

Introduction

Too often, new traders jump into the options game with little or no understanding of how options spreads can provide a better strategy design. With a little bit of effort, however, traders can learn how to take advantage of the flexibility and full power of options as a trading vehicle. With this in mind, we've put together the following options spread tutorial, which we hope will shorten the learning curve.

The majority of options traded on U.S. exchanges take the form of what are known as outrights (i.e. the purchase or sale of an option on its own). On the other hand, what the industry terms "complex trades" comprise just a small share of the total volume of trades. It is in this category that we find the "complex" trade known as an option spread.

Using an option spread involves combining two different option strikes as part of a limited risk strategy. While the basic idea is simple, the implications of certain spread constructions can get a bit more complicated.

This tutorial is designed to help you better understand option spreads, their risk profiles and conditions for best use. While the general concept of a spread is rather simple, the devil, as they say, is always in the details. This tutorial will teach you what option spreads are and when they should be used. You'll also learn how to assess the potential risk (measured in the form of the "Greeks" - Delta, Theta, Vega) involved with the different types of spreads used, depending on whether you are bearish, bullish or neutral.

So, before you jump into a trade you think you have figured out, read on to learn how a spread might better fit the situation and your market outlook. If you need a refresher course on the basics of options and option terminology before you delve any deeper, we suggest you check out our Options Basics tutorial.

Selling & Buying to form a Spread

When you buy or sell a call or a put option, you are using only one option strike and, by definition, trading in a single contract month, with one expiration date and always only one underlying. The Greeks apply to that one option only. However, depending on the type of spread trade you might use, you may be incorporating not just different strikes, but multiple months and, in some cases (when trading futures options), multiple underlying contracts.

But before we get ahead of ourselves, let's start by thinking in terms of a basic spread and what that means.

If we were to reduce the idea of a spread to its most basic or essential characteristic, it would have to be its use of two option contracts, known as the "legs" of the spread. Using two legs simply means that you are combining, for example, a call option that you buy (sell) with a call option that you sell (buy). Therefore, you are taking both sides of the market in all spreads (buying/selling or selling/buying). That is the easy part.

While the spread is a simple concept, it can become a bit more difficult in practice - especially in terms of the implications for profit/loss given a directional move of the underlying. Many traders are less likely to consider risk dimensions measured by Theta and Vega, but that doesn't make them any less important. These Greeks, shown in Figure 1, are important measures of risk, so let's take a moment to review them. (For further insight, see Getting To Know The "Greeks" and Using The Greeks To Understand Options.)

Delta is a measure of exposure to price changes, Vega is a measure of exposure to volatility changes and Theta is a measure of exposure to time value decay. (For more on this, see The Importance Of Time Value.) Looked at in terms of a spread with two legs, these risk measures refer to the entire position (i.e. "position Delta", "position Theta", "position Vega"). The position Greeks will be explained further below, as we examine each type of spread discussed in this tutorial.

Since a spread trade always involves the use of more than one option strike price, let's examine what this means in terms of the Greeks. Remember that when you buy a call, for example, you are exposing yourself to the risk of a wrong-way move of the underlying (i.e. you don't want the stock to fall). Or perhaps you face risk from a too-slow rise of the underlying and potential loss from time value decay (i.e. you want a bullish move of the underlying and you want it as quickly as possible).

But when you construct a spread, which involves both selling and buying options as two sides or legs of the spread, you are taking the other side of the trade in the underlying. This fundamentally changes the risk you face. Now, since you have sold a call and bought a call (for example), you have less risk from a fall in the market and from decay of the premium (since the call you sold will profit from both these developments), instead of facing the risk of a wrong-way move as mentioned above when in a long call, or a market that moves too slowly in your intended direction.

In other words, the purchase of the call in question, given a bullish outlook, is subsidized by the sale of a further out-of-the-money (FOTM) call (the time premium collected offsets the purchase price of the call purchased). While limiting risk (we will come back to this below with an example), it also limits exposure to time value decay (the short call gains with passage of time) and downside price movement (the short call gains here, too).

You might be wondering how you can profit from a spread if you buy and sell a call (or put) that both gains and loses with not just wrong-way moves or no movement, but also with the correct move in the correct time frame. The answer can be found by looking at the different strikes chosen and the resulting differential position Theta, Delta and Vega resulting from any particular spread construction. The word "differential" is a fancy way of describing the net Theta, Delta or Vega values (what we have after combining the individual Greek values on each leg) of the spread. If you are confused, the examples below will help to make this somewhat abstract discussion more concrete.

Remember that with an outright option you have a measure of Theta, Delta and Vega (among other risk measures known as the "Greeks"). When you construct a spread using different option strikes, you in effect are combining the Delta, Vega and Theta of each strike into one trade, giving you a position Greek. For example, when you combine the two Delta values of each option in a spread, you now have a net Delta, or position Delta, which can be negative (net short the market) or positive (net long the market). This is true for Vega and Theta, as well as the other Greeks, but the implications of the signs on the values are different, as we will discuss later. (For more insight, see Going Beyond Simple Delta: Understanding Position Delta.)

Before looking at the most commonly used spreads using call and put options, let's take a closer look at our idea of position Greeks and explore what this means in terms of the risk/reward story.

Vertical Spreads

Limiting Risk with Long and Short Options Legs
We have seen that a spread is simply the combination of two legs, one short and one long (but not necessarily in that order), in our simple call spread example in the previous chapter. Now let's get into a little more detail in order to begin to understand how a spread can limit risk. After looking at the risk and reward of spreads versus outrights, the next step will be to explore how each spread works and what markets work best with available spread constructions, keeping in mind the changing risk profiles of each spread from the point of view of the position Greeks mentioned in the previous section.

Taking both sides in an option trade in the form of a spread creates an opposing dynamic. The long option risk is counterbalanced by the short option reward and vice versa. If you were to buy an out-of-the-money (OTM) call option on IBM and then sell a further out-of-the-money (FOTM) call option, you would have constructed what is known as a vertical call spread (we will discuss vertical spreads in all their forms in more detail later), which has much less risk than an outright long call.

When you combine options in this manner, you have what is known as a positive position Delta trade, as seen in Figure 2 of the previous chapter. Negative position Delta refers to option spreads that are net short the market. We will leave neutral position Delta spreads aside for the moment, returning to neutral spreads toward the end of this tutorial.

If IBM trades lower, for example, you would lose on the long OTM call option and gain on the short FOTM call option. But the gain/loss values will not be equal. There will be a differential rate of change on the option prices (i.e. they will not change by the same amount given the hypothetical drop in IBM stock, the underlying). The reason for the different rates of change in the prices of the two legs of the spreads is easy to understand – they are options with different strikes on the call options strike "chain" and, therefore, will have different Delta values (we will talk about Theta and Vega later).

Therefore, when IBM drops, the OTM long call option, having the larger Delta because it is closer to the money, will experience a bigger change (drop) in value than the change (drop) in the FOTM short call option. All other things being equal, a drop in IBM will cause the option spread value to decline, which in the case of this type of spread (a bull call debit spread) is always going to mean an unrealized loss in your account. But the loss is smaller than would have been the case if long just the OTM call.

On the other hand, if IBM rises, the opposite will occur. The OTM long call option will experience a greater rise in price than the FOTM short call option's price. This causes the spread price to increase, resulting in unrealized profits in your account. In both cases, for simplicity, we assume that the IBM move occurs just after taking the spread position and, therefore, time value decay has not become a factor yet.

As you can see, the risks of being wrong are reduced with a spread, but this is balanced with reduced reward if you are correct. Obviously, as with most things in life, there is no free lunch. Nevertheless, a spread trade does offer greater control of unexpected market outcomes and can allow you to better leverage your capital, leaving more capital available to use with another trade or trades. This conserved capital allows for greater diversification, for instance. And with credit spreads (which will be discussed next), which profit from time value decay, the use of a spread can increase the power of your margin dollar. That is, your risk-reward ratio can be improved in many cases.

Having seen how spreads work at a very basic level, let's turn to a closer examination of the mechanics of spreads with a look at what are called debit spreads, and then their reverse, spreads that generate a net credit in your account when opened, or credit spreads.

Debit Spreads Structure

Spreads, as we have seen, are constructed by taking positions on the long (buying the option) side while simultaneously taking a position on the short (selling the option) side of the market. Figure 1 lists the major characteristics of long options which, as you may already know, offer unlimited potential profits with limited risk measured in the form of the premium paid for the option. And as you can see in Figure 2, selling options presents just the reverse, that is, unlimited potential losses with limited potential profit.

Therefore, when we combine these into a spread, the unlimited risk posed by selling an option (such as our FOTM IBM call option from previous examples), is hedged by the purchase of the OTM IBM call. Clearly, if IBM moves up to the strike of the sold option and it gets in the money, it only means that the long option in the spread will be gaining, but only profitably up to the strike of the short option (where gains are offset with losses, ultimately at 100%). If at expiration the short option is in the money, the long option will have offset any losses incurred on the short option. So where does the profit arise?

Figure 1 – Long call and put options characteristics


Looking at the spread in terms of expiration helps to reveal the profit/loss dynamics - most importantly, the potential profits. But we will need to go to a greater level of detail to show this. Let's look at our IBM bull call spread again, but this time, we'll add some more detail in terms of actual strikes prices and a month.

Let's assume that IBM is trading at 82, and the OTM long call is the October 85 call option trading at 3.00 ($300). When we combine this with our FOTM short call option, using, for example, the October 90 trading at 1.20 ($120), we get a vertical bull call spread, one of the most popular spread buying strategies used. Here we have bought the Oct 85, which is out of the money because the stock is trading below the strike of the call at 82. We paid $300 for this leg.

Figure 2 – Short call and put option characteristics


Had we not created a spread, this outright position would have a maximum loss potential of $300. There would also be unlimited profit potential should IBM move above 88 (85 + 3 = 88 breakeven) by expiration in October (the third Friday). But when we drop in another leg to create a bull call vertical spread, the total risk drops to $180 ($300 - $120 = $180). We took in $120 for the sale of the FOTM short call (Oct 90), thus reducing our total outlay upon opening the position to $180 (our new maximum loss amount).

This is now the maximum risk. The cost of this reduced risk comes in the form of limited upside profit potential. Instead of unlimited upside profit potential, the maximum profit potential is capped at $380 per spread. This amount is determined by taking the size of the spread (90 – 85 = 5) and subtracting the premium paid for the spread (1.20), leaving 3.80 (or $380) in potential profits. The long call will profit up to the strike of the short option, at which point the long call gains are canceled by the short call losses. As seen in Figure 3, since we paid $120 for the spread and its value at expiration if at the short strike or higher can never be more than $500, the net gain would be $380 ($500 - $120 = $380).

Figure 3 – Vertical bull call debit spread


We will come back to more examples of vertical spreads, using puts as well as calls as examples. For now, it is important to understand the basic risk/loss parameters in this vertical call spread since the core concept largely carries over to other spread constructions.

Credit Spreads Structure

Now that you have a basic idea of what an option spread looks and feels like (of course limited to our simple vertical bull call spread), let's expand on this foundation to other types of spreads and take a look at another example of a vertical spread. For this example, we will make time a friend to the spreader.

The example from the previous chapter used IBM call strikes of October 85 and 90 to illustrate a simple vertical call debit spread. Recall that vertical means using the same month for constructing the spread. If we were to reverse this type of spread, we would invert the profit/loss dynamics, and it would lead to a credit in your trading account upon opening the position. The objective of the credit spreader - and the parameters of the potential profitability of a credit spread - is fundamentally different despite the mirror image seen in the spread design (i.e. selling instead of buying the OTM and buying instead of selling the FOTM IBM call option).

Because the options used to construct the vertical spread expire at the same time, there is no need to be concerned with rates of time value decay across different months (such as in calendar, or time spreads, which are covered in the horizontal and diagonal spreads section that follows). To visualize the profit/loss dynamics of a vertical call credit spread, let's return to the example of a vertical call spread with IBM options, where we bought the October 85 and sold the October 90 for a debit of $180. Now we will reverse this order and generate a credit spread in the process. As seen in Figure 1, the lower right-hand side of the profit/loss plot shows the maximum loss and upper left-hand side shows the maximum profit potential.

The maximum loss of $380 results from the short October 85 call expiring in the money but having losses limited by the long side in the trade, the October 90 call.

Figure 1– Vertical bear call credit spread


Here we have taken in a net credit and will profit if the underlying stock closes below 86.20 (85 + 1.20 = 86.20) at expiration, which means we would want to have a neutral-to-bearish outlook on the stock when using this type of spread. The breakeven is determined by adding the premium of the spread (1.20) to the strike price (85). In other words, for a loss to occur, the stock has to trade up to the short strike in the bear call spread and exceed the credit collected (1.20).

For example, if IBM closes at 87 on expiration-day - the third Friday of October - the short option will be in the money and settle at 2.00 (87 – 85 = 2.00). Meanwhile, the October 90 strike will have expired out of the money and will be worthless. The credit spreader will be debited 2.00 (the amount the October 87 is in the money) at settlement, which will be offset only partially by the amount of premium collected when the spread was opened (1.20), for a net loss of -.80, or -$80. For each spread, there would be a loss of $80 in this scenario.

Whether using a vertical debit or credit spread, the same principles are at work on the put side. You could use a put debit spread (known as a bear put spread) to trade a bearish outlook (buying an ATM put and selling an FOTM put). On the other hand, if you had a bullish or neutral outlook, you could construct a put credit spread (known as a bull put spread), which involves selling an ATM put and buying an FOTM put to limit potential losses. The profit/loss profile is identical to the vertical call spreads outlined above.

Horizontal Spreads

When we employ the same strikes in a spread, by definition, it means that we need to use different months, otherwise the trade is an offsetting one (a buy and sell order on the same strike would cancel out). Known as a horizontal spread (going across different months but using the same strikes), the profit/loss dynamics are again fundamentally different from those we saw in the vertical bear and bull call spreads. Figure 1 presents a summary of the key buy-sell combinations that define horizontal spreads, as well as vertical and diagonal (to be covered next) spreads.

Spread Type

Vertical

Horizontal

Diagonal

Credit Spreads


Sell out of the money (OTM), buy further out of the money (FOTM)


Buy front month ATM, sell back month ATM


Buy/sell front month, sell/buy back month using different strikes

Debit Spreads


Buy OTM, sell FOTM


Sell front month ATM, buy back month ATM


Buy/sell front month, sell/buy back month using different strikes

Figure 1 - Put spread constructions - months and strikes


Since horizontal spreads involve selling and buying (or buying and selling) options with different rates of time value decay (i.e. the Theta values are not the same on each option in the spread because one option expires before the other), these types of spreads are known as calendar (or time) spreads. Their source of potential profit, therefore, is a differential rate of time value decay on the two option legs in the spread. (For more insight, see The Importance Of Time Value.)

The horizontal time spread is presented usually as a strategy to deploy if you have a neutral outlook on the underlying. Since it profits from differential rates of time value decay, it does not like movement of the underlying. Too much movement of the underlying, in either direction, will result in losses, which are defined always by the size of the debit (purchase price) of the spread. Another important, but often overlooked, dimension to these spreads is the exposure they have to changes in volatility, measured in position Vega.

Recall that position Vega refers to the degree to which the strategy will suffer or gain from a change in volatility. In horizontal time spreads, since you are short the nearby month and long a back month (which could be the next month or farther away month), you will have differential Vega on the options in the spread. That is, the back month option will always have more Vega than the front month because it has more premium. Therefore, if you are buying the back month, you are creating a spread with more long Vega than short Vega, meaning the spread will profit from a rise in volatility. Below you will see that when we reverse these time spreads (buying the nearby and selling the back month), the position Vega is reversed, leaving you exposed to a rise in volatility (and potentially profiting from a fall in volatility).

The position Vega of the horizontal time spread constructed by selling the front month and buying the back month makes these trades problematic for a neutral outlook. If you want the stock to stay in a narrow range, you are unlikely to have an expansion in volatility, which would help this spread from the perspective of the Vega dimension. On the other hand, if you have a rise in the level of volatility, it may help lend a hand in reducing actual risk (and just the opposite when the levels fall). These trades are often excellent short-term position Delta neutral trades to put on to play a quick change in volatility levels, which will produce an immediate profit. This works best at market bottoms. (To learn more, read Capturing Profits With Position-Delta Neutral Trading.)

Continuing with the IBM example, let's say the stock is trading at 85 and we have a neutral outlook. We could set up a horizontal time spread by selling an ATM call and buying a call option at the same strike in a back month. Let's say we sell the June 85 and buy the October 85. Keep in mind that the same structure could be applied using puts and it will not affect the outcomes since premiums should be close to parity for the ATMs.

The prices of the options are contained in Figure 2 below. As you can see, the nearby is trading at 1.70 ($170) and the October at 4.20 ($420). Therefore, if we sell the June and buy the October, we pay $200 for the spread, which defines our maximum loss (a concept that will become clearer below). In the same table, the Theta and Vega values have been included to illustrate the points mentioned above.


IBM Calls


Premium


Theta


Vega


Sell June 82.5


+1.70


+2.87


-9.83


Buy Oct 82.5


-4.20


-1.64


+21.20


Differentials


-2.50


+$1.23


+11.37

Figure 2 – IBM horizontal time spread details


The cost of this spread would have been $250, or the difference between the purchase of the October 82.5 and sale of the June 82.5. That this represents your maximum loss can be seen easily if you think of the stock falling to zero. If the stock were to go to zero, both options would be worth zero and you would lose $420 on the October (the leg you are long) and gain $170 (the leg you are short) on the June, leaving a loss of -$250, as seen in Figure 3, below. In other words, the spread can go only to zero, always limiting your losses. On the winning side, if the spread narrows, you'll have the potential to close the trade at a profit. The spread narrows if the nearby month loses value faster than the back month. As you can see in Figure 2, the Theta values are not the same. The June 82.5 is gaining $2.87 per day at present but the October 82.5 is losing just $1.64 per day.

At this differential rate of decay (+$1.23 per day) the position will continue to show unrealized gains provided the underlying stock does not move too far either way, or the levels of volatility don’t change much. Note that the position is position Vega long, meanwhile, with the October gaining +$21.00 for each percentage point rise in volatility, which is offset by a smaller negative Vega of just -$9.83 per point change in volatility. The position Vega, therefore, is +$11.37.

If the spread is projected over about 33 days left in this trade (given that the rate should accelerate), the returns should be approximately $100 if the price of the underlying does not change, as you can see in Figure 3. But this does not factor in volatility changes, if any were to occur.

Figure 3 – Horizontal call time spread profit/loss


This is fine if the volatility remains unchanged, and that may take place if the stock hardly moves. But if changes in underlying volatility, or the implied volatility, take place for whatever reason (implied may rise without movement if investors anticipate a big move ahead), the picture gets messy. Again, it would be hurt by a fall in volatility and helped by a rise because this classic horizontal time spread is long Vega. Therefore, this type of trade might work well going into an earnings announcement if you are looking to ride the rise in implied volatility generated by speculative demand in puts and calls ahead of any big announcement. Of course, you would need to get long Vega with a time spread ahead of a rise in implied volatility, and hopefully get out before it dropped again.

In short, the horizontal time spread has profit potential from differential time value decay, but it might be more realistic to use these as long volatility plays. As you will see below, by reversing this trade, you might be able to profit from a fall in implied volatility following the news event that drove up current levels of volatility to above-normal levels (of average volatility). Here you would hope to gain from getting short volatility, which you will see in Figure 4 below, can be accomplished with small risk with a reverse time spread. The reverse time spread simply changes the order of the spread from sell front month to buying front month. And on the back month, you would reverse it from being long to short. As you can see in Figure 4, the position Vega is now negative, meaning it will profit from a fall in volatility. But the trade is not exposed to a negative position Theta, meaning it loses from time value decay.


IBM Calls


Premium


Theta


Vega


Buy June 82.5


-1.70


-2.87


+9.83


Sell Oct 82.5


+4.20


+1.64


-21.20


Differentials


+2.50


-$1.23


-11.37

Figure 4 – IBM reverse horizontal call time spread details


To finish with the non-reversed example of IBM horizontal spread, Figure 3 shows the maximum profit potential of this type of trade (abstracting from volatility changes). For example, if IBM settles right at 82.5 on the third Friday of June (the month of the call option we sold), we keep the entire premium collected from the sale of that option. Meanwhile, the October 82.5 call would be liquidated at that point, taking a loss. But the loss would be smaller than the gain from the sale of the June call, leaving our maximum profit. As you move higher or lower, the potential for profit declines and eventually poses potential losses, as seen in Figure 3. The spread, in this case, does not widen and instead narrows, leaving potential losses. This occurs in either an up or down market because the position Delta dynamics swamp the potential for a differential rate of time value decay to provide a profit. However, keep in mind that a very small rise in volatility can improve dramatically the prospects for profit here (not captured in this diagram).

Let's take a look again at reversing this spread. It should be clear by now that when we reverse this horizontal time spread, the position Greeks reverse as well. So the position becomes position Theta negative (you are losing with time value decay) and position Vega negative (meaning a potential to win with a fall in volatility). Clearly, this would mean that this trade requires an entirely new set of conditions for potential profit. In short, you would want to put this trade on if you expected the market to make an explosive move with an associated fall in volatility (implied). Typically, this occurs at market bottoms in equities as fear subsides and premiums fall on options when the stock reverses. As can be seen in Figure 5, the maximum profit can be found at the extremes of price movement, otherwise time value decay will produce a loss on the purchased nearby option that is greater than any potential gains on the back month sold option.

Figure 5 - Reverse horizontal call time spread profit/loss

Diagonal Spreads

Spreads with Different Months and Different Strikes
Now that we have covered the basic spreads - debit/credit vertical and debit/credit horizontal - taking the next step to a diagonal should be easier. Recall that spreads can be done either as debits or credit spreads, and can be constructed with puts or calls. That said, with a diagonal spread, we are going to take the horizontal time spread and move the long leg to a different strike. That's it! It's easy. Diagonal simply refers to choosing a back-month leg that is not the same as the front-month leg. Figure 1 contains the key relationships in terms of months and legs for our three types of spread constructions - vertical, horizontal and diagonal.

Spreads

Months

Strikes

Vertical

Same

Different

Horizontal

Different

Same

Diagonal

Different

Different

Figure 1 - Spread types - months and strikes


To understand diagonal spreads, you first must understand differential time value decay, which we explained in the horizontal spread section of this tutorial. Unlike in a horizontal spread, when we go diagonal there are multiple combinations of possible constructions. A diagonal spread has only two possible strike combinations, which must always be the same. While it is possible to establish an out-of-the-money horizontal spread, the basic dynamic at work in diagonals and horizontals is the same - differential Theta.

Let's view an example of a diagonal call spread using IBM again. In this case, we will construct the diagonal with a credit (there are other possibilities) using puts instead of calls. Suppose we sell an out-of-the-money call at 90 and buy a further out-of-the-money call at 95. And let's say we sell the 90 in September and buy the 95 in October. If we sell the September for 50 and buy the October for 10, we would have the maximum profit at the short strike of 50 when September expires, as can be seen in Figure 2. This is easy to understand. If IBM trades up to the short strike of the diagonal spread and expires at that strike, we retain the entire $50 for selling the September 90 strike.

Figure 2 - Diagonal call credit spread profit/loss


At the same time, the October 95 is going to have additional time premium on it as it is presumably now only five points out of the money (recall that when we put this on, IBM was trading at 82.5). Therefore, there also will be a profit on the long October 90 call, even though time premium decay will have taken some value out of the option. Let's say the October 95 now has $30 in premium. Taken together the total position at this point would have made $80 if closed out.

Figure 3 - Diagonal put credit spread profit/loss


The advantages of using a diagonal spread for credit spread can be found in the potential gains on the long back-month option. In terms of position Vega, meanwhile, unless you go too wide on the spread between the nearby and back month options, you will have a positive position Vega - which gives you a long volatility trade, just like our horizontal time spreads seen above. What is interesting about the diagonal, however, is that it may begin at neutral or slightly position Vega short (typical if a credit is created when putting it on). But as time value decays on the nearby option, it gradually turns position Vega long. This works particularly well if using puts to construct the spreads because if the stock moves lower, the long option captures the rise in implied volatility that usually accompanies increasing fear surrounding the stock's decline.

When the diagonals are reversed, just as with reversed horizontal spreads, the spread experiences a flip to basically short Vega (loses from rise in volatility) and negative position Theta (loses from time value decay). The trade has the mirror image of potential profitability seen in Figure 2 and Figure 3. Generally, these trades should be constructed mostly with the idea of trying to profit from a quick change in volatility, since the probability of having a big enough move of the underlying is usually quite low.

Tips & Things to consider

Now that you have obtained a solid foundation for underlying option spreads, here are some tips on how to use them. In this section, we'll focus on the use of orders, liquidity and some margin-related matters.

Spread trades, as a rule, should be established using a spread order, leaving legging into the spread (placing one leg at a time) to the pros. The possibility of having the market move against you while trying to leg in makes using spread orders imperative. But what type of spread orders should you use? Generally speaking, you should always work a spread order using a limit price to assure you get the desired price that will make the spread work out according to plan. For example, because there is a limited profit potential in many spreads, it is essential to get filled correctly, or not to get filled at all. Limit orders serve this purpose well.

In today's online trading environment, simple spreads can be placed with limit orders and filled without too much trouble. Of course, it is important to make sure the option strikes comprising the spread have enough liquidity, measured in open interest and daily volume. The options should have at least a few hundred options traded (on average) daily with at least as much open interest if you are doing spreads that may require removal of the spread when it gets into trouble, or the execution of adjustments.

If you simply plan to hold a debit spread (buying spreads) until expiration, then liquidity is not as important. However, be aware that the more liquid the market, the better the pricing. With little liquidity, the market makers tend to widen the bid-ask spreads, making achieving your profit objectives more difficult. Always examine option prices for a few days to get an idea of how they are being priced if you are not sure about what size the bid-ask should be. You can also compare the bid-ask spreads across stocks of similar price (but different liquidity) to evaluate how wide the market is.

In most of the spreads presented in this tutorial, margin requirements are straightforward. For example, if you were to sell a vertical credit spread like the IBM call credit spread presented in the previous section using the strikes that are five points apart, the margin on the account would be the size of the spread minus the premium collected. In this case, since we collected $120 in premium, the margin requirement would be $500-$120=$380. If we were to retain the entire premium collected as profit, the rate of profit on the required (and maximum margin) would be 24% (abstracting from commissions).

For debit spreads, the capital required to open the position is always the cost of buying the spread. All debit spreads are strategies that are bought, so there must be enough capital in the account to pay for the spread.

For diagonal spreads, the margin story is not quite as simple. If the spread is established in a futures options market, a margin system known as SPAN applies. SPAN margin offers the advantage of having the nearby short option in a diagonal call or put credit spread looked at as a covered option. In most equity options brokerage accounts, the short leg across months is margined as a naked option, which can significantly impact overall performance due to the extra margin that is required to trade the strategy.

Finally, when applying horizontal and diagonal spreads to futures options, you may be trading two underlying contracts. For example, an S&P 500 futures options June-September diagonal put spread would have the June trading on the June futures and the September option trading on the September futures contract. It is not a big issue really, but something to be aware of if you decide to explore options on futures as an additional arena for applying options spreads.

Conclusion

If you plan to use options spreads, you will discover that they have some major advantages over outrights. In fact, the full power of options as a trading vehicle doesn't really become known until you develop a good understanding of the workings of spreads. Most importantly, the selling side of option spreads has the greatest potential because you can profit from both time value decay and leverage of holding a long option in, for example, a diagonal spread. Even if using debit spreads, however, there are excellent hidden advantages mostly overlooked by novice traders. Certain debit spreads, for instance, can give you the ability to profit from time value decay (on a short out of the money leg) and potentially gain on the long side (from an in-the-money leg).

The advantage with the in the money debit spread is that you can cover the short option with a long in-the-money option instead of holding the stock itself, which entails much greater risk. And reducing risk is really what spreads are all about.

Risk reduction that is greater than the reduction in potential reward, ideally, means that you develop a trading advantage. Spreads offer that possibility if done correctly. Overall, given the ideas presented here, you should be able to expand your available trading options, and provide yourself with further opportunities for a payoff in the long run.

Source – Investopedia


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